NeurIPS Workshop (REO) · 2026
Time, Space, and Modality: Probing Earth Foundation Models for Intra-Field Crop Yield Forecasting
A probe of four Earth foundation models (AlphaEarth, OlmoEarth, Presto, and AnySat) against a multi-view gated fusion baseline trained from scratch, testing whether their embeddings carry real crop phenology over time and preserve intra-field spatial variability, across 140 corn and 197 wheat field-years.
- OlmoEarth with a ConvLSTM head achieves the highest field- and pixel-level R² on both crops (field R² = 0.614 corn, 0.863 wheat), benefiting from joint self-attention across space, time, and modality.
- OlmoEarth overtakes AlphaEarth's frozen annual embedding about four months before corn harvest and five months before wheat harvest, tracing a genuine seasonal phenology cycle in embedding space.
- AnySat, pretrained across 11 sensors, best preserves intra-field spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I), while OlmoEarth best recovers the yield distribution. Temporal fidelity and spatial detail come from distinct design choices.